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Ever since PM Modi came to office, his government has prioritised social reengineering over economic growth. Look where that led us.

自从莫迪总理上台以来,他的政府将社会改革置于经济增长之上。万彩票网_[开户赠金]看看这种做法把我们带到了哪里。

While most world capitals have been waiting for significant economic reforms since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election to office in 2014, his government has prioritised social reengineering over economic growth in India.

自2014年印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪当选以来,世界上大多数国家的首都一直在期待重大的经济改革,但他领导的政府却将社会改革置于经济增长之上。

Putting vote-getting religious sentiments above economic and strategic goals has diminished the enthusiasm with which other countries support Indian foreign policy.

把赢得选票的宗教情绪置于经济和战略目标之上,削弱了其他国家支持印度外交政策的热情。

And as a result of lacklustre economic policies, India’s rate of growth has declined to 4.5 per cent. What was once described as the fastest growing economy in the world, is now in its worst phase in 42 years.

万彩票网_[开户赠金]由于缺乏经济政策,印度的经济增长率已降至4.5%。万彩票网_[开户赠金]这个一度被形容为全球增长最快的经济体,如今正处于42年来最糟糕的阶段。



In 2015-16, India’s GDP stood at US$ 1.99 trillion and it had a labour force of 860 million people. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund predicted that India’s economy would grow between 7.3-7.5 per cent over the next two years. The World Bank even asserted that a “resilient” India would help drive economic growth in South Asia. But now India’s eastern neighbour, Bangladesh, has become the fastest-growing economy in the region.

2015- 2016年,印度国内生产总值为1.99万亿美元,劳动人口8.6亿。世界银行和国际货币基金组织都预测,未来两年印度经济增长率将达到7.3%至7.5%。世界银行甚至宣称,一个“有弹性”的印度将有助于推动南亚的经济增长。但现在,印度的东部邻国孟加拉国却成为该地区增长最快的经济体。

And the latest Budget offers little hope of reviving India’s stagnant economy.

而最新的预算也让印度停滞不前的经济复苏希望渺茫。

Social slide

社会滑坡

The lack of focus on economic growth over the last several years can be traced to an over-emphasis on socio-cultural issues and majoritarian politics.

万彩票网_[开户赠金]过去几年对经济增长缺乏关注的情况,可以追溯到过分强调社会文化问题和多数主义政治。

For instance, the Modi government’s launch of a programme to encourage foreign investment in India in February 2016 was overshadowed by the arrest of students from one of India’s top universities, the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), on grounds of sedition. The narrative that emerged was that the Modi government was using a colonial-era law against university students while asking Indian and foreign corporates to bring state of the art technology and skills to India.

例如,2016年2月,莫迪政府启动了一项鼓励外国投资印度的计划,但由于政府以煽动叛乱为由,逮捕了贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁大学(印度顶尖大学之一)的学生,使该计划蒙上了阴影。后来出现的说法是,莫迪政府利用殖民时代的法律对付大学生,同时要求印度和外国公司把先进的技术和技能带到印度。

It is difficult to convince investors of a government’s promises about capitalist freedom when it is accompanied by visible repression. For years, India’s greatest strength globally was its reputation as a secular, inclusive, and pluralist democracy. India’s socialist economic frxwork did not attract capital, and the consensus among economists was that the country needed free markets alongside its political and cultural freedoms.

当一个政府对资本主义自由所做的承诺,伴随着明显的压制时,投资者会很难相信这种承诺。多年来,印度在全球最大的优势是其世俗、包容和多元化民主的声誉。印度的社会主义经济框架不曾吸引资本,而且经济学家的共识是,除了政治和文化自由,印度还需要自由市场。

Starting in late 2014, there has been a steady decline in India’s reputation for tolerance. Attacks on religious minorities, especially Muslims, including lynchings tied to the demands of a ban on cow slaughter and beef consumption, do not bring investment. And neither do attempts to ‘re-convert’ Muslims and Christians to Hinduism through ghar wapsi (‘return to the fold’).

从2014年年底开始,印度宽容的声誉稳步下滑。万彩票网_[开户赠金]对宗教少数民族,尤其是穆斯林的攻击,包括与禁止屠宰牛和食用牛肉相关的私刑,并没有带来投资。万彩票网_[开户赠金]试图通过ghar wapsi(“回归宗教”)运动,让穆斯林和基督徒“重新皈依”印度教的企图也是如此。

Illiberal majoritarianism coupled with an unwillingness to dismantle controls that have limited India’s growth are probably the reasons why India is performing below expectations in the economic realm.

万彩票网_[开户赠金]狭隘的多数主义,加上不愿取消限制印度增长的管制,可能是印度经济表现低于预期的原因。

China’s rise

​中国的崛起



The Modi government’s decisions on Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) are positive steps, but their impact so far is small. A lot needs to be done to improve India’s British-era infrastructure (rail, road, air, and ports), or accessibility to basic amenities like electricity and water.

莫迪政府就商品和服务税(GST)以及倒闭破产法(IBC)所做的决定是积极的步骤,但迄今为止,它们的影响很小。印度需要采取很多措施来改善其英国时代的基础设施(铁路、公路、航空和港口),或者改善基本设施如电力和水的可达性。

None of these can be accomplished through culture wars. Businesses seek countries with secure tax regimes and political and social steadiness. But India’s complex and confusing taxation structures, the presence of retroactive taxation, and the government’s punitive approach to businesspeople have created an environment of fear within the business community.

这些都不能通过文化战争来实现。企业寻求的是税收制度安全、政治和社会稳定的国家。但印度复杂而令人困惑的税收结构、追溯征税的存在,以及政府对商人的惩罚方式,在商界造成了一种恐惧的环境。

At a time when many US firms are moving out of China, India’s policy should focus on wooing these investors, improving ease of business, and offering incentives.

万彩票网_[开户赠金]在许多美国公司纷纷撤离中国之际,印度的政策应该集中在吸引这些投资者、改善经营环境、提供激励措施上。

Instead, xenophobia, hyper-nationalism, and a desire for absolute political control seem to be pushing those who have already invested in India away. And the BJP government has been more protectionist than even its predecessors.

万彩票网_[开户赠金]相反,仇外、极端民族主义和对绝对政治控制的渴望,似乎正在把那些已经在印度投资的人赶走。而且人民党政府的贸易保护主义甚至比它的前任更加严重。

Moreover, India’s friends and rivals will take New Delhi seriously when they see India investing more on defence and security. But instead of spending more on defence, India has been spending less. This year’s defence budget (excluding pensions) stands at only 1.5 per cent of the GDP.

此外,如果印度的朋友和竞争对手看到印度在国防和安全上投入更多资金,他们会认真对待新德里。但印度并没有增加国防开支,而是减少了开支。今年的国防预算(不包括养老金)仅占GDP的1.5%。

Some apologists have blamed India’s bureaucracy, the ‘babus’, for India’s current economic mess and the lack of reforms. But the same bureaucracy had effectively implemented the 1991 reforms when commanded by the political leadership of the time to do so. The ‘babus’ would have gladly done the same under instructions from their current political masters.

一些辩护者将印度当前的经济混乱和缺乏改革归咎于印度官僚机构的“先生们”。但在当时的政治领导层的指挥下,这个官僚机构有效地实施了1991年的改革。在当前的政治领导人的指示下,这些“先生们”会很乐意做同样的事情。

Given its focus on social and cultural issues, the Modi government does not seem to have the desire to significantly change the way India does business. Instead of shifting blame away from the political leadership, honesty demands recognition of the incompatibility of the current leadership’s social agenda and India’s economic and strategic aspirations.

鉴于其对社会和文化问题的关注,莫迪政府似乎不希望印度做生意的方式做出显著改变。我不会把责任推卸给政治领导层,而是真诚的希望他们认识到:当前领导层的社会议程与印度的经济和战略抱负并不相容。